Bangladesh and Pakistan’s trade ties have increased, how will it affect India? Find out
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Bangladesh has undergone political
upheaval and a change of government in the past few months. After this change
of government, the political calculations have changed, and its impact has also
been seen at the international level. Pakistan and Bangladesh were divided in
1971. After that, for the first time, both of them have come together from a
trade perspective. An agreement was signed in early February 2025 between the
two countries. Both countries have adopted a policy of maintaining trade
harmony. A positive step has been taken towards reactivating the trade route
that has been inactive for the past few decades. After this, a cargo ship left
for Bangladesh from Pakistan’s Port of Qasim. Bangladesh has given the green
light to purchase 50 thousand tons of rice from Pakistan. This rice will come
to Bangladesh in two phases. The first consignment of 25 thousand tons of rice
has been sent to Bangladesh. The remaining 25 thousand tons of rice will be
sent soon. Given the current trade, the economic relations between the two
countries will strengthen. Similarly, shipping routes will become easier.
Therefore, it can have a direct impact on India.
What will be the impact on
India-Bangladesh trade?
There is no doubt that Bangladesh’s
closeness with Pakistan will have a direct impact on India. If trade relations
with Pakistan strengthen further, there is a possibility of a decline in trade
with India. Bangladesh is supplied with a large amount of food from India. But
now the same need is being met by Pakistan. In such a situation, there can be a
significant change in India’s regional trade relations. So far, Bangladesh has
had maximum trade relations with India. But now there is a possibility of a
decline. There is no doubt that if Bangladesh imports more from Pakistan, it
will have an adverse effect on India’s exports. Bangladesh can get clothes,
medicines, agricultural products from Pakistan at a cheaper price. Due to this,
Indian products will not get the desired price. Bangladesh gets rice, wheat,
onion, garlic, sugar, cotton, food grains, refined petroleum, electrical
appliances, plastics, etc. from India.
Pakistan-Bangladesh relations a
headache for India
India is the largest economy in
South Asia. If the friendship between Pakistan and Bangladesh strengthens
further, India’s grip on SAARC may loosen. Not only that, China’s influence may
also be affected. Because China has close business relations with Pakistan and
Bangladesh. On the other hand, if there are direct transactions between
Pakistan and Bangladesh, it will be important to see which route will be used.
Because this issue can be a headache for India. Not only that, India will also
have to become more capable in terms of security. Because the rate of
infiltration from the India-Bangladesh border has increased. In the last few
years, Bangladeshi citizens have settled in India. Due to this, India’s
security has been threatened.
Bangladesh will also be in trouble
along with India.
94 percent of Bangladesh’s border is
with India. That is why Bangladesh is referred to as an ‘India locked’ country.
The 4367 km long border between India and Bangladesh is applicable. In such a
situation, Bangladesh’s security and trade depend on India. Therefore, if the
relations between India and Bangladesh deteriorate, it will affect exports.
Bangladesh will have to pay the price. Bangladesh’s GDP will fall and
unemployment will increase along with inflation. Meanwhile, India-Pakistan trade
is at a standstill. This has a direct impact on Pakistan. On the other hand, it
will be expensive for Bangladesh to buy goods from Pakistan and China.
Therefore, Bangladesh will have to pay the price.